disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam

It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. [18] Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. However, as a result of the ability and willingness of Ethiopians at home and abroad to invest in the dam project, the government was able to raise a significant portion of the money needed to start the construction of the GERD. Given the fact that the conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the GERD seems to be among the most pressing issues in the region, it might be advisable for emphasis to be placed on securing a trilateral agreement that secures the peace between these three countries first. (eds.). Hence, it is hard to see how Egypt could make a compelling argument that it has been harmed by the Dam. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. This is because the VCLT allows an older treaty to be rescinded by a new one if the new one concerns the same topic (Article 59). Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Practically from the outset, the World Bank and international donors withdrew funding due to a lack of transparency, driven home when it was learned that the construction had begun without a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia. In terms of the current status of talks, in 2019, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia which led to some tentative progress. The $4 billion hydroelectric dam . Terms in this set (10) how long and high is the dam? The GERD has the potential to act both as driver for conflict, but also for cooperation. However, it also entails potential negative effects on Egypt, if not carefully managed (see alsoSecurity implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt). A significant segment of local opinion is also aware of the well-known problems that come with mega-dams wherever they are built, among them population displacements and resettlement, reductions in the quality of life, the spread of waterborne diseases, salinisation and the loss of productive and profitable lands, more intense competition over the remaining available land, and losses of cultural and historic heritage. Nile negotiations break down as Egypt, Sudan accuse Ethiopia of rejecting legally binding agreement. The GERD and the Revival of the Egyptian-Sudanese Dispute over the Nile Waters. Trilateral talks mediated by the United States and World Bank from November 2019 to February 2020 collapsed as Ethiopia rejected a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the GERD, which led to both downstream countries requesting intervention from the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2020 (Kandeel, 2020). The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a critical project that intends to provide hydroelectricity to support the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. In: Yihdego, Z. et al. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. However, Ethiopia ultimately refused to sign the draft agreement. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. Under the Ethiopian constitution, the state is the proprietor of the countrys land and natural resources, which gives the government significant control over the allocation and use of land. (2017). Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. We shall begin with the former. For more on the background and history of these important relationships, see my book with former AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime., not be filled without a legally binding agreement, when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. More alarmingly, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak allegedly even considered bombing the Dam. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. Neither the Egyptian nor the Ethiopian governments received positive domestic feedback on their agreement. Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. 74 cubic metres. The strategy and its surrounding narrative have attracted large influxes of foreign investment in the Ethiopian agrarian sector, with multi-million dollar leases of agricultural land to foreigners generally linked to irrigation projects planned in tandem with the construction of the dam. grand ethiopian renaissance dam. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. For Ethiopia, GERD is considered an economic game-changer. Note that, under Article 62(2) VCLT, territorial treaties are excepted from the change in circumstances rule. The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. It is perhaps the most glaring demonstration of environmental or climate injustice that the youngest continent (60 percent of the population is below the age of twenty-five) is also the one that has historically least contributed to the industrial emissions of greenhouse gases yet is likely the one that will be hardest affected by meteorological This article considers water security in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (the Dam). Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines and electrical equipment for the hydroelectric plants. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. Addis Ababa launched the construction of the GERD under Zenawi, and work on it has proceeded at full steam ahead ever since. Workers move iron girders from a crane at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. As mentioned above, Ethiopias dam-construction strategy is intimately linked with large-scale foreign investment in the agrarian sector and specifically in areas near the artificial reservoirs created by the dams. The Nile-COM is the highest political and decisionmaking body of the NBI. . Although Ethiopia has argued that the hydroelectric GERD will not significantly affect the flow of water into the Nile, Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile waters for household and commercial uses, sees the dam as a major threat to its water security. The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. They generate electricity, store water for crop irrigation and help to prevent floods. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. The three countries have agreed that when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. The latter, in Article 2(4), allocated acquired rights of 66% of Nile water to Egypt and 22% to Sudan (with the remaining 12% attributed to leakage). Ethiopia announced in April 2011 that it intends to build four large dams on the Nile, including one of the largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (formerly known as Project X or the Grand Millennium Dam).This huge dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana . Owned and operated by the Ethiopian Electric Power company, the 145-m-tall roller-compacted concrete gravity dam . Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. If it were to take place during a sequence of years in which the Blue Nile flow and the AHD reservoir itself was low, Egypt might not be able to withdraw sufficient water supplies to meet all of its agricultural needs. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. In contrast, if water from the Dam were to be used for irrigation purposes by Ethiopia (i.e. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? Egypts Nile Water Policy under Sisi: Security Interests Promote Rapprochement with Ethiopia. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. Lastly, over-year storage facilities upstream in Ethiopia will allow Sudan to increase its water use. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Nile's waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERD's construction. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Download PDF 1.40 MB. Although the immediate issue at stakesecuring a technical agreement on the filling of the GERDs reservoiris among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 statesincluding Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudanto agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. The Danger of Multi-Party Democracy and Free Elections in Plural Societies Recognizing the Muslim Brotherhood as a Legitimate Player in Egyptian Politics was a Big Mistake Ethiopian Partnering with ASKY to Establish West African Cargo Hub Ethiopia and China's ZTE singed $800 million mobile deal H and M to build factories in Ethiopia At this point, though, the GERD is nearly completed, and so Egypt has shifted its position to trying to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERDs reservoir and how the GERD will be managed, particularly during droughts. Revisiting hydro-hegemony from a benefitsharing perspective: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Many historical grievances and distrust remain on the Ethiopian side regarding Egypt (Gebreluel, 2014), with some Ethiopian journalists assessing the 'Declaration of Principles' as being more in favour of Egypt than Ethiopia (Zegabi East Africa News, 2015). to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. Another impressive snippet of information is that the Government of Ethiopia is financing the entire project, along with loans mainly from China. It has also expressed concerns about the potential impact the initial filling of the dam will have on areas downstream. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Perhaps the most significant project in the 2003 plan was the Chemoga-Yeda Hydroelectric Project, a series of five small dams on Blue Nile tributaries and two dams on the Genale River with a couple more envisioned for a later phase. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. Hence, the customary law argument might be too ambitious. Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. Today, however, Ethiopia is building the Grand Renaissance Dam and, with it, Ethiopia will physically control the Blue Nile Gorgethe primary source of most of the Nile waters. Both countries are concerned that without a clear and binding agreement with Ethiopia, the latter will have full control of the passage of water from the GERD during droughts, which would be devastating to the lives of millions in Egypt and Sudan. Given the importance of water to Ethiopian agriculture, it resulted in the tragic irony that, as Thurow put it, the land than feeds the Nile is unable to feed itself. The status quo started to change when Ethiopia began construction of the Dam, just east of its border with Sudan, in 2011. Consequently, it suits Egypts interests in this context to argue that the DoP is binding, that it precludes any net loss of flow and therefore that the use of the Dam for irrigation purposes is prohibited. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. An Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. Attempts to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute over the past decade have reached a deadlock. It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who laid the foundation stone in 2011, said the dam would be built without begging for money . Ethiopia has two major plans for these rivers, which both flow into Somalia, in the form of the Wabe Shebelle and the Genale Dawa power plants. The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. Over the years, Egypt has used its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to successfully prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile. Water scarcity is a growing problem. Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) Consequently, under the principle of pacta tertiis nec nocent nec prosunt, it could demonstrate that those treaties cannot bind it as it was a third party and did not give its consent. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. Egypt's 100 million people rely on the Nile for 90% of the country's water needs. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. However, an agreement was still far from reach. Ethiopia needs regional customers for its hydropower to ensure the economic feasibility of the GERD. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. Nile Basins GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond. The Nile riparians must understand that the river is a common resource whose effective management must be approached from a basin-wide perspective. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. Since plans for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were first announced in 2011, Cairo has viewed the project as a serious threat to the country's water supply. IDS (2013). In addition, no independent, multilateral Environmental and Social Impact Assessments has been carried out suggesting that Ethiopia is reneging from the 2015 Declaration of Principles (Kandeel, 2020). Learn. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. The final touches to these plans were added in 2005 and 2007, and one involves nine hydroelectric dams along the Gebale Dawa to produce some 1,300 MW of electricity for export. The dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia (an area about four times the size of Cairo), displace approximately 20,000 people in Ethiopia, and create a reservoir that will hold around 70 billion cubic . From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020).

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